Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, March 1-31, 2020, 9,077 respondents.
Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.
- While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30% this month (four percentage point increase since last month)
- Both parties are tied among likely voters at 35% as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
- Since our last update, most democratic candidates have dropped out of the race. While both Former Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders remain in the race, Biden’s substantial delegate lead has likely secured him as the Democratic candidate for the November election
- This month, Former Vice President Biden and President Trump remain neck and neck in their match-up (as they have since the fall of 2019)
Support for President Trump falls as COVID-19 pandemic sweeps the US
Earlier this winter we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and decline after his acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial. Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, support for Trump has fallen to one of the lowest levels we’ve seen since the start of our study. This drop is coming from the Midwestern, Northeastern, and Western regions of the country as we see support for President Trump remain stable in the South. The upcoming election will likely be deeply impacted by the pandemic as the risk of an upcoming economic downturn increases.
You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here.
RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.
RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.