Welcome to July’s update on our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase a recent increase in support for the Democratic Party and Vice President Joe Biden, in the midst of the Black Lives Matter protests and the COVID-19 pandemic.
We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data.
RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?
In June, we see crowd prediction for a Democratic Party win in respondents’ states increase to 27% from 24% in April
Share of don’t know responses concurrently fell from 51% to 48%
- Since our last update, uncertainty among respondents’ preferred presidential candidate has dropped nearly 10 percentage points: from 46% in April to 37% in June.
- Former Vice President Joe Biden benefited the most from respondents’ declining indecision, increasing the gap between him and President Trump to 9 percentage points. Prior to this month, the largest gap we had seen between the two candidates since data collection began in Fall 2019 was 2 percentage points.
Crowd prediction for Democrats increasing among Midwestern likely voters
Crowd predictions for a Democratic win have increased following Black Lives Matter protests being held across the country. Both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences.
Among likely voters in the Midwest, a swing region crucial to President Trump’s win in 2016, we see that Republican crowd predictions have dropped since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. While uncertainty increased in the first two months of lockdown, support for the Democratic party increased through May and June. We see support for Democrats increasing and support for Republicans either remaining stable or declining across all regions (Midwest, Northeast, South, and West) of the US.
You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here.
RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.
RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.