Welcome to September’s update of our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase the maintaining support for the Democratic Party and Former Vice President Joe Biden, following both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.
We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data.
RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.
Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?
- As we approach the November election, uncertainty among crowd predictors remains high, while both parties remain neck and neck on a national level.
- Among likely voters, the share of don’t know responses drops to 30%, and support for the Democratic and Republican parties rise to 36% and 34%, respectively.
- Since our last update, uncertainty among respondents’ preferred presidential candidate has increased significantly: from 37% in June to 44% in August/September.
Crowd prediction for a Democrat win has passed Republicans in the Midwest
Crowd predictors for a Democratic win have been steadily increasing since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and following the nation-wide BLM protests, the nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Vice President candidate, and the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. Both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences.
In 2016, the Midwest was a swing region that was instrumental to President Trump’s win. Since tracking began in the fall of 2019, Republicans have remained ahead of Democrats among likely voters in the Midwest. However, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats have been gaining momentum. Following the nomination of Senator Harris and both the DNC and RNC, crowd predictors for a Democratic win have passed Republicans for the first time since tracking started. It will be crucial to watch this region as we head into the election to see whether Vice President Biden can maintain his increasing support.
RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.
RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.