Goggle predicts: Former VP Joe Biden victory with 296 Electoral College votes

Welcome to the final update of our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This Tuesday, Americans will head to the polls to cast their vote for the next President of the United States. However, results are unlikely to be known on Election Day, as it will take time to count the 80 million ballots (as of October 30, 2020) that have already been cast through mail-in and early voting.

Over the past year, we have licensed RIWI Corp.’s technology to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their State, which candidate they personally prefer, and any other interesting insights that we discover. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. Therefore, we chose to license RIWI data collection technology, and we deployed it for our own use and have generated our own prediction, applying our own algorithm and our own data analysis, to predict the winner of the Electoral College. We did not license any of RIWI’s analysis tools or expertise. Therefore, this is not, in any way, a suggestion or representation of RIWI Corp.’s own official prediction for the 2020 US Election. We are making these observations only and entirely based on Goggle’s internal analysis. 

National support holding for Former Vice President Biden

A year prior to the 2020 election, the Republican Party held a consistent lead over the Democratic Party. The gap between the parties narrowed as uncertainty mounted at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Former Vice President Biden gained a lead in June following the Black Lives Matter rallies held across the nation in late May and June. Mr. Biden continued to further his lead through the fall and into the election. 

Goggle predicts: Former VP Joe Biden victory with 296 Electoral College votes

While national sentiment among likely voters shows Mr. Biden in the lead, what does the Electoral College look like? In 2016, President Trump won crucial Battleground States to secure his Electoral College victory and all eyes will be on these States again. Politico identified Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the Battleground States for 2020. We predict Mr. Biden will capture Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Arizona and Florida will go to President Trump. Further, we predict that Mr. Biden will win the Electoral College with 296 votes and become the 46th President of the United States. 


Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados, licensed RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) data collection technology but applied Goggle’s own analysis to inform this prediction.

2020 In-Focus: Support for a Democratic win maintains through DNC and RNC

Welcome to September’s update of our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase the maintaining support for the Democratic Party and Former Vice President Joe Biden, following both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.

We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party26%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know49%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, August 1-September 12, 2020, 11,041 respondents. Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.
  • As we approach the November election, uncertainty among crowd predictors remains high, while both parties remain neck and neck on a national level.
  • Among likely voters, the share of don’t know responses drops to 30%, and support for the Democratic and Republican parties rise to 36% and 34%, respectively.
  • Since our last update, uncertainty among respondents’ preferred presidential candidate has increased significantly: from 37% in June to 44% in August/September.

Crowd prediction for a Democrat win has passed Republicans in the Midwest 

Crowd predictors for a Democratic win have been steadily increasing since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and following the nation-wide BLM protests, the nomination of Kamala Harris as the Democratic Vice President candidate, and the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. Both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences.

In 2016, the Midwest was a swing region that was instrumental to President Trump’s win. Since tracking began in the fall of 2019, Republicans have remained ahead of Democrats among likely voters in the Midwest. However, since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats have been gaining momentum. Following the nomination of Senator Harris and both the DNC and RNC, crowd predictors for a Democratic win have passed Republicans for the first time since tracking started. It will be crucial to watch this region as we head into the election to see whether Vice President Biden can maintain his increasing support. 


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: June Increase in Support for Democrats Following Black Lives Matter Protests, COVID-19 in June

Welcome to July’s update on our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase a recent increase in support for the Democratic Party and Vice President Joe Biden, in the midst of the Black Lives Matter protests and the COVID-19 pandemic.

We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party27%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know48%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, June 1-30, 2020, 9,417 respondents. Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.

In June, we see crowd prediction for a Democratic Party win in respondents’ states increase to 27% from 24% in April

Share of don’t know responses concurrently fell from 51% to 48%

  • Since our last update, uncertainty among respondents’ preferred presidential candidate has dropped nearly 10 percentage points: from 46% in April to 37% in June.
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden benefited the most from respondents’ declining indecision, increasing the gap between him and President Trump to 9 percentage points. Prior to this month, the largest gap we had seen between the two candidates since data collection began in Fall 2019 was 2 percentage points. 

Crowd prediction for Democrats increasing among Midwestern likely voters 

Crowd predictions for a Democratic win have increased following Black Lives Matter protests being held across the country. Both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences.

Among likely voters in the Midwest, a swing region crucial to President Trump’s win in 2016, we see that Republican crowd predictions have dropped since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. While uncertainty increased in the first two months of lockdown, support for the Democratic party increased through May and June. We see support for Democrats increasing and support for Republicans either remaining stable or declining across all regions (Midwest, Northeast, South, and West) of the US.

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: Data show uncertainty growing among likely voters in May

Welcome to May’s update on our 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. This month we will showcase a recent increase in undecided voters, following Super Tuesday and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party24%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know51%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, April 1-30, 2020, 9,417 respondents. *Respondents are unique, anonymous, and non-incentivized.
  • In April, we see the Republicans narrowly edge out the Democrats as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
    • With half indicating don’t know, this election outcome is still far from clear
  • Since our last update, Senator Sanders dropped out of the race leaving Former Vice President Biden as the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate in the upcoming election
  • This month, Former Vice President Biden gains his greatest lead over President Trump since we began tracking in fall 2019

Uncertainty about election results is increasing among likely voters 

Following the winnowing of the field of Democratic presidential candidates and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we see uncertainty about the election result increasing among likely voters. These respondents have indicated that it is worth their time to vote, but are unable to predict who will win in their state (both academic research and previous RIWI predictions show that asking who respondents think will win is more predictive than tallying individual preferences).

From March 2 to April 6, the share of don’t know responses surged 10 percentage points. Although this increase levelled off through April, monitoring these undecided voters will be crucial to predicting the result of the upcoming election. 

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: April 2020 Update shows Support For President Trump Galls as Covid-19 Pandemic Sweeps the US

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party25%
Republican Party24%
Don’t know51%

Source: RIWI data, US tracking, March 1-31, 2020, 9,077 respondents. 

Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30% this month (four percentage point increase since last month)
    • Both parties are tied among likely voters at 35% as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
  • Since our last update, most democratic candidates have dropped out of the race. While both Former Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders remain in the race, Biden’s substantial delegate lead has likely secured him as the Democratic candidate for the November election
  • This month, Former Vice President Biden and President Trump remain neck and neck in their match-up (as they have since the fall of 2019)

Support for President Trump falls as COVID-19 pandemic sweeps the US

Earlier this winter we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and decline after his acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial. Now, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, support for Trump has fallen to one of the lowest levels we’ve seen since the start of our study. This drop is coming from the Midwestern, Northeastern, and Western regions of the country as we see support for President Trump remain stable in the South. The upcoming election will likely be deeply impacted by the pandemic as the risk of an upcoming economic downturn increases. 

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: March 2020 Update Shows Support for President Trump Returns to Fall 2019 Level

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party26%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know49%
Source: RIWI data, US tracking, February 1-29, 2020, 5,829 respondents. 
Respondents are unique, anonymous, and non-incentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 26% this month (the lowest level we have seen so far)
    • Both parties are tied among likely voters at 37% as the party most likely to win in a respondent’s state
  • Since our last update, Former Vice President Biden has returned as the Democratic candidate with the highest support in our head-to-head matchups, however, Senator Sanders is the only democratic candidate that beats President Trump
  • We added former Mayor Michael Bloomberg to the head-to-head matchups in mid-February after his increased polling numbers and media attention. Initial results show former Mayor Bloomberg ahead of Senator Warren with 25% support, 29% for President Trump, and 46% undecided

Support for President Trump returns to fall 2019 level

Earlier this winter we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and backlash against the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. However, after his acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial we see support for President Trump beginning to decline. In the final week of February, 51 percent of respondents prefer President Trump to win the 2020 Presidential election over a randomly exposed Democratic candidate, returning his support to a level we saw in the fall of 2019. This drop is coming from the Northeastern, Southern, and Western regions of the country as we see support for President Trump remain stable in the Midwest through February, a crucial swing region in the upcoming election. 

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: February’s Support Remains High for President Trump through Senate Impeachment Trial

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party24%
Republican Party25%
Don’t know51%

Source: RIWI data, US tracking, January 1-31, 2020, 6,413 respondents. 

Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30%
    • 36% of likely voters believe the Republican party will win in their state while 34% believe the Democratic party will
  • Since our last update, Senator Sanders has overtaken Former Vice President Biden as the Democratic candidate with the highest support in our head-to-head matchups, although he still does not beat President Trump

Support remains high for President Trump through Senate impeachment trial

Last month we saw support for President Trump increase in the wake of his impeachment in the House of Representatives and backlash against the killing of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. We check back in this month to see whether this support was sustained. 

Through the impeachment trial in the Senate, support for President Trump has remained high. In the final week of January, 55 percent of respondents prefer President Trump to win the 2020 Presidential election over a randomly exposed Democratic candidate. Since the start of the survey four months prior, we have seen support for the President increase by five percentage points.

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.
RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: January Update Shows President Trump gaining support

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party24%
Republican Party24%
Don’t know52%

*Source: RIWI data, US tracking, December 1, 2019-January 12, 2020, 7,795 respondents. Respondents are unique, anonymous, and unincentivized.

  • While the share of don’t know continues to be very high, among those who indicated they are likely to vote, it drops to 30%
    • 37% of likely voters believe the Republican party will win in their state while 33% believe the Democratic party will
  • Since our last update, support for Former Vice President Biden versus President Trump has dropped by 2% and the share of don’t know for Senator Warren has also decreased slightly 
  • Mayor Buttigieg was added this month due to increased media attention but we see that on a national level he is struggling to keep up with our leading Democratic candidates

President Trump gaining support

In the past few weeks, President Trump has faced impeachment and backlash over his orders to kill Iranian General Qasem Soleimani without Congress’ approval. Despite these events we see that President Trump’s support has actually increased. After a dip post-impeachment, the share of those who prefer President Trump to win in the 2020 Presidential Election has continued to increase.

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: Republicans pull ahead in the Midwest in October/November

Welcome back to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party diverse Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and any interesting insight from our data. 

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election. We are using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?

Democratic Party25%
Republican Party24%
Don’t know51%

*Source: RIWI data, US tracking, November 1-30, 2019, 5,453 respondents. Data gathered anonymously; unpaid respondents.

  • This month we continue to see that a large share of respondents don’t know which party will win in their state. This ‘disengagement’ is under-reported in the US media.
  • Since our last update, Senator Sanders has pulled ahead of Senator Warren but narrowly loses in a head-to-head match-up against President Trump.

Republicans pull ahead in the Midwest in October/November

You can read an analysis of these data on our polling partner’s website here


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy,               and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under              long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.

2020 In-Focus: Unprecedented Accurate Presidential Election Predictor

The election is wide open and other things traditional polls won’t tell you

Welcome to our monthly 2020 US Presidential Election tracker. We have partnered with RIWI to bring monthly updates on which party Americans think will win in their state, which candidate they personally prefer, and an interesting insight from our data.

RIWI accurately predicted the results of the 2016 Presidential Election, including the popular vote result. We will be using the same method to predict the results of the 2020 Presidential Election.

Regardless of whom you support, which party do you think will win your state in the 2020 Presidential election?*
Democratic Party25%
Republican Party23%
Don’t know52%

*Source: RIWI data, US tracking, September 19-October 31, 2019, 10,349 respondents.

  • The election is wide open: 52% of respondents do not know which party will win their state in 2020
  • Check back here for regional and state-level breakdowns
  • Respondents were randomly exposed to one of three head-to-head matchups (President Trump vs. Former Vice President Biden, President Trump vs. Senator Warren, or President Trump vs. Senator Sanders)
  • The election is wide open: in all three head-to-heads around 50% of respondents do not know which candidate they would prefer to win in 2020

What makes these data different?

This month we want to highlight what makes our data unique compared to those of traditional polling methods. The tracker here at goggle.com is different because we are:

  • Using the same RIWI-powered technology that predicted the 2016 election
  • Collecting data continuously in real-time
  • Capturing both politically engaged and disengaged voices (traditional polling methods often only speak to those who are most engaged, skewing results)
  • Not collecting any personally identifiable information, and not incentivizing our respondents, reducing social desirability bias
  • Our unweighted sample nearly matches US census data in age, gender and geographic distribution

You can continue reading on our polling partner’s website here.


About RIWI

RIWI is a global trend-tracking and prediction company that is a leader in data quality, privacy, and security (see ​here for more information). RIWI technology is used extensively and under long-term agreements by BofA Securities, the U.S. State Department and by other G7 government agencies, the World Bank, UN agencies, and academics at top Universities such as Harvard and Oxford. RIWI has won many awards for its global trend-tracking and predictive analytics technology, including, most recently, the “Rising Star” award for data that yields an investment edge at the 2019 Battle of the Quants in New York City.

RIWI Corp. (https://riwi.com) powered the above data for Goggle.com Inc., a technology company based in Barbados.